Take a Look at the Aviation Forecast

In the June issue of Professional Pilot, Bob Rockwood compared predictions he made in 2014 to the current state of the market, using his specially designed predictions index. Most of the predications Rockwood made in 2014 were on target. For example, he said the Syberjet SJ30 didn’t have enough cabin room to justify the price tag. As of May 2016, no units had been sold.

Rockwood also predicted that the Gulfstream G650 and G550 would do well against competition such as the Bombardier Global 7000, 8000, and XRS models. The Global 7000 never made it to market, but about 540 G550s have been sold compared to 350 Global XRS jets.

Surprising industry stats

The most surprising part of Rockwood’s examination of the numbers for the 2015-2016 selling season seems to be the disparate nature of used aircraft values compared to the market. Rockwood explains that the current economy has the market in a “reverse bubble” that’s driving prices down. Not to worry, according to Rockwood. Once everything evens out, the pricing structure will right itself and we’ll be back on track.

Who will come out the winner going forward, then? It’s hard to say. Rockwood points to one technology, Hyperloop — which is based on magnetic levitation technology — as something to watch, noting that it’s time for a game changer to come along. There are plenty of technologies that fit the bill.

The future of aviation

Airbus developers are looking to technologies such as bionic structures for the aircraft of the future while Maurice J. Gallagher Jr., Allegiant Travel Co CEO, said in an article in USA Today, “The next five years will be all about increasing automation and decreasing labor cost.”

Automation can take a lot of forms. For example, according to a Flying magazine article, there’s a possibility that future airports could be fully automated. That’s probably a distant-future possibility, but wearables, in-flight connectivity, and voice commands are already starting to make a difference.

As Rockwood pointed out, aerospace technology has been our main method of high-speed travel for nearly 100 years. There’s no doubt that bright young engineers with creative imaginations are going to bring lots of changes to the industry over the next decade or two. It will be interesting to see how it all comes together.