Don’t get too excited about a quick recovery as the recovery is not set for another year according to Honeywell, the avionics, equipment and engine manufacturer. The report that Honeywell is reporting on indicates that there should be one more year of an economic slide in store for the business aviation industry in 2011, with the rebound recovery and growth occurring in 2012. Rob Wilson the President for Business and General Aviation for Honeywell states:
“I think the downturn in 2009 demonstrated for all of us that nothing is really firm in an economic calamity as we saw, but that said, we are seeing a lot less volatility in that order book, a lot more stability and more of a sense of continuity.”
The report indicates that Honeywell predicts deliveries of between 675 and 700 new business jets for this year in 2010 which happens to the the lowest total since 2004. They predict that in 2011 another year of less than 700 deliveries will be the case.
AIN reported on some of the numbers of the report:
Based on the results of the survey, Honeywell sees a slow but steady change in aircraft category demand over the next five years. Through 2015, medium to large aircraft such as the Bombardier Challenger 605, Dassault Falcon 7X, Cessna’s Citation X and Embraer’s growing Legacy family will account for 32 percent of the projected purchases, while light and medium business jets including new designs like Bombardier’s Learjet 85, the Gulfstream G250, Embraer’s Phenom 300 and Cessna’s CJ4 will make up approximately 22 percent. Long-range and ultra-long range aircraft such as the new Gulfstream G650 and Bombardier’s Global family will garner 21 percent. Those longer-range aircraft will constitute nearly 50 percent of the delivery dollar value over that same period. Very light jets will constitute the remaining 25 percent of demand but equate to only five percent of the retail shipment value. While the personal jet segment is not a part of the survey, the forecast calls for deliveries over the next 10 years of 500 to 1,000 of the aircraft such as the still-developing PiperJet and the slowly developing Cirrus Vision.
The report from Honeywell in the past has not been the most accurate and in fact that have missed the numbers considerably over the last few years, but this is some good news forecast for our industry.