Cliff’s Notes to 2012 Business Aviation Forecast

Several lengthy reports and laundry lists of expectations for the state of the business aviation market have been released over the past couple of months and weeks. Corporate Jet Insider took some time to compile the data into a quickly accessible, easy-to-digest format. Thanks to the good people at Conklin & deDecker and Aviation International News for doing the heavy lifting.

The forecast for 2012 is mixed: growth in some areas and decline in others. Overall, expect more growth, but slower than was anticipated in 2009.

Contributing Factors

  • Slowing growth in BRIC countries
  • Debt crisis in Europe
  • Sputtering growth of U.S. economy

Sales forecast by aircraft type

  • Large cabin jets — increase in sales (funded by the corporate profits)
  • Small and medium cabin jets — flat
  • Turboprop — flat
  • Piston market — last to recover
  • Helicopters — largely dependent on oil prices (which are expected to be stable)

Honeywell’s predictions

New jets: Expect 11 percent decline in new jet deliveries in 2012

Used jets: Prices still below 2008 levels, but uptick in demand through 2017

You can read the FAA Aerospace Forecasts FY 2011-2031 for more in-depth analysis for the coming decades.

All in all, a mixed bag for business aviation continues. It is still a buyer’s market, but as long as the U.S. economy s l o w l y improves, the aviation market will demonstrate very modest gains. The European debt situation may also significantly affect growth stateside.

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